Mr President, Watch Your Back, Egypt-Morsi Scenario in the Making!

President Buhari jetting out of the country recenlty

 

This is surely not the best of time for Nigerians who had expected a positive change to the quality of their lives after almost a year they voted out the ‘squandermanian’ government of the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP.

The long queues at fuel stations, which were a major hallmark of the PDP government, especially that of the ‘shoeless’ President Goodluck Jonathan, have resurfaced and may not ease off anytime soon.

Similarly, the power blackout currently being experienced across the country is quite worrisome, particularly coming just after the celebration of the attainment of 5,700 megawatts power generation, the feat, unprecedented in the history of Nigeria. Also more worrisome are the attendant affects of lack of fuel, leading to the prices of goods and services hitting the roofs with Nigerians, particularly, the masses feeling the pangs more.

Fuel queue in Abuja

 

And as if these are not enough, some labour unions are already threatening to down tools if the Buhari government fails to act fast to ameliorate the sufferings of the people. The National Association of Resident Doctors (NARD) has actually issued a 21-day ultimatum to government to address the non-payment of its members’ salaries in states like Osun, Oyo, Imo and Kogi, just as the Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC) is also contemplating a one-day warning strike over the refusal of the government to reverse the increase in electricity tariffs.

It beats ones imagination that Nigeria, despite being one of the world's biggest oil producers, still imports most of its fuel and is currently facing a severe shortage. However, efforts by the government to reduce importation and boost local production through the country’s refineries appear to be under serious sabotage. There have been reports of insiders in the Nigeria National Petroleum Corporation NNPC conniving with vandals to destroy oil pipelines!

Under the excuse of foreign exchange scarcity, the International Oil Companies (IOCs) since November, 2015 have been reducing importation of fuel into the country thereby aiding to the current acute shortage of the product. The NNPC’s import quota of about 50% expectedly could not meet the daily needs of the populace.

Another angle to the current situation, as observed by analysts, is the government’s tactical withdrawal of subsidy payment. In January, the government ended official fuel subsides with the argument that the cost of oil had fallen so much that the subsidies were no longer required.

There have also been reports of coordinated moves by unscrupulous elements in the region where the nation’s oil and gas facilities are domiciled to frustrate gas transmission to power plants, hence the current acute electricity shortage across the country. Recently, power generation fell to zero megawatts due to the activities of the vandals, leading to the shut down of about twelve of the country’s power plants.

Subsequently, many Nigerians are becoming impatient with the APC government as they queried whether the change promised during the campaigns is gradually not turning turning to a mirage.

Some have even attributed the problems to the President Buhari frequent trips abroad, believing that his stay at home would have addressed the problems. Nevertheless, his party has stoutly defended the trips as being in the interest of the country in the long run.

But some observers have reasoned that the above scenarios could be a grand plot by certain interests, both local and foreign, to frustrate the government and turn the people against it. They are quick to make reference to how the first freely elected democratic president of Egypt, Mohammad Morsi was ousted from power by the country’s powerful military with the backing of the US and other European and Asian nations.

The Egypt-Morsi scenario

Ousted President Morsi of Egypt

 

The one year of President Morsi’s government witnessed unprecedented sabotage by the powers-that-be in the country. All his reform efforts were frustrated and never got adequate media coverage. Rather, only the perceived negatives were parroted by both local and international media. The unfair media reportage and clandestine divisive activities of the Mubarak ex-men culminated in the ousting of Morsi in June 2013.

Immediately after the infamous coup, the streets seethe with anti-Morsi protests became empty suddenly! Long queues at gas stations disappeared, power cuts stopped and the police, who had withdrawn their services despite several appeals from the president, returned to the street willingly.

Anti-Morsi protest in Egypt

The apparently miraculous end to the crippling energy shortages, and the re-emergence of the police, seems to show that the legions of personnel left in place after former President Hosni Mubarak was ousted in 2011 played a significant role, intentionally or not, in undermining the overall quality of life under the administration of President Morsi.

Morsi’s supporters expectedly concluded that the sudden turnaround proves that their opponents conspired to make his government fail. Not only did police officers seem to disappear, but the state agencies responsible for providing electricity and ensuring gas supplies failed so fundamentally that gas lines and rolling blackouts fed widespread anger and frustration.

Naser el-Farash, who served as the spokesman for the Ministry of Supply and Internal Trade under President Morsi, said: “Different circles in the state, from the storage facilities to the cars that transport petrol products to the gas stations, all participated in creating the crisis.”

Working behind the scenes, members of the old establishment, some of them close to Mr. Mubarak and the country’s top generals, also helped finance, advise and organize those determined to topple the Islamist leadership, including Naguib Sawiris, a billionaire and an outspoken foe of the Brotherhood; Tahani el-Gebali, a former judge on the Supreme Constitutional Court who is close to the ruling generals; and Shawki al-Sayed, a legal adviser to Ahmed Shafik, Mr. Mubarak’s last prime minister, who lost the presidential race to Mr. Morsi,” Ben Hubbard and David D. Kirkpatrick wrote in the New York Times July 10, 2013.

They went further that, “When Mr. Mubarak was removed after nearly 30 years in office in 2011, the bureaucracy he built stayed largely in place. Many business leaders, also a pillar of the old government, retained their wealth and influence.

“Despite coming to power through the freest elections in Egyptian history, Mr. Morsi was unable to extend his authority over the sprawling state apparatus, and his allies complained that what they called the “deep state” was undermining their efforts at governing.

“

Mr. Sawiris, one of Egypt’s richest men and a titan of the old establishment, said Wednesday that he had supported an upstart group called “tamarrod,” Arabic for “rebellion,” that led a petition drive seeking Mr. Morsi’s ouster. He donated use of the nationwide offices and infrastructure of the political party he built, the Free Egyptians. He provided publicity through a popular television network he founded and his major interest in Egypt’s largest private newspaper. He even commissioned the production of a popular music video that played heavily on the network.

Naguib

“Tamarrod did not even know it was me!” he said. “I am not ashamed of it.”

“He said he had publicly predicted that ousting Mr. Morsi would bolster Egypt’s sputtering economy because it would bring in billions of dollars in aid from oil-rich monarchies afraid that the Islamist movement might spread to their shores. By Wednesday, a total of $12 billion had flowed in from Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait. “That will take us for 12 months with no problem,” Mr. Sawiris said.

“Mr. Farash, the trade ministry spokesman under Mr. Morsi, attributed the fuel shortages to black marketers linked to Mr. Mubarak, who diverted shipments of state-subsidized fuel to sell for a profit abroad. Corrupt officials torpedoed Mr. Morsi’s introduction of a smart card system to track fuel shipments by refusing to use the devices, he said.

“But not everyone agreed with that interpretation, as supporters of the interim government said the improvements in recent days were a reflection of Mr. Morsi’s incompetence, not a conspiracy.”

Although the conspiracy angle to Mr Morsi’s fall in Egypt had been disputed, all signs pointed towards the ‘truness’ of the conspiracy!

Elbaradai

Whether correct or not, our own president Buhari must learn from the circumstances that led to the fall of Morsi. He should not assume that majority of Nigerians are behind him and because of that become insensitive to the possibility of the fifth columnists upstaging his government. PMB should also be wary of international support and accolades his government has garnered in the almost one year in power, because such support and accolades were also accorded Mr Morsi by the US and the Gulf monarchs who later connived with saboteurs within Egypt to sweep him out of power.

The saboteurs do not need to be confrontational. They only need to orchestrate a process that will make the masses turn against the government, and then the aggrieved elites, whose source of livelihood has been badly affected by the anti-corruption war will naturally capitalise on the anger of the masses to bring down the government.

Already, a group, #OccupyNigeria, which never occupied even Abuja during the locust years of the PDP, is calling on Nigerians for mass protest against the gruelling fuel crisis and acute power shortage in the country.

Naguib Sawiris, the Elbaradai and co, planned, funded and executed the ‘popular’ uprising that brought down Morsi’s government. PMB should not sleep as Sawiris and Baradais in Nigeria could also be executing their plans as well.

It is important for the presidency to quickly identify these negative but devilish forces and deal with them decisively to avoid a repeat of 1984 tragedy when the fifth columnists had a field day.

Bola Tinubu

The massively organised and highly respected APC team should also wake up from their slumber and deploy the same dreaded tactics of the campaign era, not only to counter such debilitating moves but also rise up to tell their stories, just as some are beginning to ask: 'where are the Lai Muhammeds and Bola Tinubus and Dino Melayes of the campaign era?'.

Lai Mohammed

Mr President, please, watch your back!!!