The 2011 general election in Africa’s most populous country and second largest economy,Nigeria, is surely going to be decisive for the continued existence of the country as a united
entity. This is because discordant tunes now rent the air over the criteria to be used in choosing who rules the country come 2011. The zoning arrangement, which has been adopted by the ruling PDP, and indirectly by opposition parties, from all indication, will no longer be considered in the choice of who flags the party’s ticket, courtesy of vehement opposition mounted against it by people of the south-south region where President Goodluck Jonathan came from.
On the surface, the argument put forward that all Nigerians irrespective of the regions they come from should be free to contest the presidential election as stipulated in the country’s constitution seems tenable and in fact incontrovertible. However, the reality on ground is that the relative political stability Nigeria has been enjoying since 1999 when the military handed over power to civilians might not have come without the zoning arrangement, though an internal affair of the ruling Peoples Democratic Party, PDP. It was said to be a gentleman agreement among the powers brokers from both the North and South to have rotational presidency in order to lay to rest the constant power struggle between the two regions. It was allegedly agreed that the south have its turn from 1999 to 2007 for the north to take over till 2015.
To many observers, such an unwritten agreement, which was faithfully adhered to during the eight years of the southern rule, should also be followed even after the death of the northern President Umar Musa Yar’Adua last June. President Jonathan is not expected to run for the presidency based on the existing zoning agreement. But, the President, though yet to declare his intension, is leaving no one in doubt as to where his mind is. His moves recently suggest he is nursing the idea to take a shot at the topmost position in the country. His kinsmen have endorsed him already.
Those who say the zoning agreement had since been dumped long ago are being hypocritical. Even the main opposition parties, the ANPP and the AC embraced it in their selection of presidential candidates in the 2007 elections. They both fielded northern candidates!
The North has insisted on sticking to the zoning mechanism. While PDP governors from the south-south region are urging President Jonathan to declare for the presidency, their northern counterparts only said he had the right to contest as a Nigerian but that the zoning arrangement in the party in still in place.
What does this whole tussle amount to? In all honesty, hypocrisy is the best word to describe the unfolding scenario. The question to be asked is should somebody from the south-west come out today to contest the presidency; will the south-south sing the same song of freedom of every citizen to vie for election in the country? Of course, the answer is obvious.
President Jonathan need not say anything about his ambition to rule beyond 2011 for discerning Nigerians to expect a different pronouncement from him. While many people praised him for appointing the respect professor Attahiru Jega as the Chairman of the Independent National electoral Commission, INEC, the truth of the matter is that the move is a perfect stopper to any northerner’s ambition to contest in 2011. A northerner cannot be the electoral umpire in an election where his fellow northerners are participating!
In addition, the president’s recent tour of the country under the guise of official visits to commission projects may only be described as a popularity-testing exercise.
One is not advocating that the zoning arrangement be retained or done away with. Many democracies across the globe have evolveddifferenways of aligning the tenets and demands of democracy with their peculiar socio-political conditions. If zoning was what gave Nigeria thedemocracy and peace that it is experiencing today, why would the power brokers have to sacrifice it now, on the altar of ethnicity? Thesouth could wait till 2015 to have their turn. That is the ideal and most honourable thing to do.
If the boat is rocked now, one is afraid, once power shifts to the North in future, the south may as well bid farewell to it then. And the consequence may be dangerous for the unity of the entity called Nigeria.
President Goodluck Ebele Jonathan should not rock the boat even though he is having endorsement here and there. 2015 is near!
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